Tell us how a company you checked turned out. Each outcome becomes a new twin.
Know which companies look like the ones that failed, six to seven quarters early.
Twin Watch looks at a company's recent filings and finds its closest financial twins: companies in history that had the same story, the same kind of business and the same pressure on cash. It then shows what happened to those twins. When a company's twins mostly went bankrupt, Twin Watch raises an early warning and names the twins, so you can see exactly why.
Twins that survived reduced debt and kept cash covering at least a year of obligations.
Every report names the real historical twins behind the score, so you can check the reasoning yourself.
Tell us how a company you checked turned out. Each outcome becomes a new twin.
A company failed and Twin Watch did not flag it? Those cases show exactly where it is blind.
Think a report is wrong? Tell us why. If you are right, that reason becomes something it learns to see.
Spot borrowers drifting toward default while there is still time to change terms or exposure.
See when a key supplier looks like companies that collapsed, and line up a backup first.
Check that large customers will still be able to pay before extending more credit.
Find out in due diligence whether a company is weaker than it looks.
Every test followed the same discipline: the rules were frozen and fingerprinted before the test, the test ran once, and the first result is the official one. Twin Watch was compared with our earlier statistical early-warning method on the same companies and the same quarters.
| One-time test | Caught: earlier method | Caught: Twin Watch | False alarms: earlier | False alarms: Twin Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held-back half (25 bankruptcies, 31 healthy) | 12 | 14 | 13.9% | 12.2% |
| Fresh 2025–26 (37 bankruptcies, 65 healthy) | 13 | 32 | 16.2% | 12.4% |
Internal tests by Recombination Finance on SEC filings, not an independent validation. False alarms are the share of quarters flagged for companies that did not file within two years. On the fresh test, the chance of the gap between the two methods arising by luck was about 1 in 100,000.
Past tests only go so far. Each month, Twin Watch scores a fixed list of companies and saves the result with a digital fingerprint, so it cannot be changed later. As the months pass, those saved predictions are checked against which companies actually filed. The first forward scorecard is due in April 2027. Each new outcome also becomes a new twin, so the library keeps learning.
Twin Watch is part of the free 90-day Nexus pilot. Pilot companies can request reports on the companies they care about and tell us how those companies turned out.
Reports are emailed automatically, usually within a few hours and always within two business days.
No code yet? Write to recombinationfinance@proton.me to request a free pilot.
Reports appear here as soon as they are ready, usually within minutes, and are also emailed to you. This list refreshes by itself.
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