Tell us how a company you checked turned out. Each outcome becomes a new twin.
Know which companies look like the ones that failed, six to seven quarters early.
Twin Watch reads a company's recent SEC filings and finds its closest financial twins: companies from history whose numbers looked most like it. It then shows what happened to those twins. When a much larger share of them went on to file for bankruptcy than is normal, Twin Watch raises an early warning and names the twins, so you can see exactly why. It is a warning signal, not a prediction.
Twins that survived reduced debt and kept cash covering at least a year of obligations.
Every report names the real historical twins behind the score, so you can check the reasoning yourself.
Tell us how a company you checked turned out. Each outcome becomes a new twin.
A company failed and Twin Watch did not flag it? Those cases show exactly where it is blind.
Think a report is wrong? Tell us why. If you are right, that reason becomes something it learns to see.
Spot borrowers drifting toward default while there is still time to change terms or exposure.
See when a key supplier looks like companies that collapsed, and line up a backup first.
Check that large customers will still be able to pay before extending more credit.
Find out in due diligence whether a company is weaker than it looks.
Every test followed the same discipline: the rules were written down and the model files fingerprinted when each test ran, each test ran once, and the first result is the official one. Twin Watch was compared with our earlier statistical early-warning method on the same companies and the same quarters.
| One-time test | Caught: earlier method | Caught: Twin Watch | False alarms: earlier | False alarms: Twin Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held-back half (25 bankruptcies, 31 healthy) | 12 | 14 | 13.9% | 12.2% |
| Fresh 2025–26 (37 bankruptcies, 65 healthy) | 13 | 32 | 16.2% | 12.4% |
Internal tests by Recombination Finance on SEC filings, not an independent validation. False alarms are the share of quarters flagged for companies that did not file within two years. On the fresh test, Twin Watch caught 20 bankruptcies the earlier method missed, and the earlier method caught 1 that Twin Watch missed. A split that lopsided is very unlikely to be luck (roughly 1 in 100,000 under a simple coin-flip model that treats each company as independent).
Compared with the standard Altman Z″ score. After the fresh test, we also scored the same 102 companies at the same quarters with the Altman Z″ score, a widely used bankruptcy-warning formula. At Altman's own published danger line it flagged 42% of calm quarters, too many to be useful on this set. Set to the same 13% false-alarm rate as Twin Watch, it caught 13 of 37 bankruptcies, against Twin Watch's 32 of 37. This comparison was added after the original test, and the false-alarm matching favors Altman. The fresh set is mostly small, loss-making companies, where Altman is known to be less reliable, so this does not show Twin Watch beats Altman everywhere.
Past tests only go so far. Each month, Twin Watch scores a fixed list of companies and saves the result with a digital fingerprint, so it cannot be changed later. As the months pass, those saved predictions are checked against which companies actually filed. The first forward scorecard is due in April 2027. Each new outcome also becomes a new twin, so the library keeps learning. The October 1 watch list was also scored with the Altman Z″ and fingerprinted, so the two can be compared on real outcomes.
Twin Watch is part of the free Nexus pilot, 90 days by default. Recombination Finance sets the end date for each pilot and may change or end it at any time. Pilot companies can request reports on the companies they care about and tell us how those companies turned out.
Reports are emailed automatically, usually within a few hours and always within two business days.
No code yet? Write to recombinationfinance@proton.me to request a free pilot.
Reports appear here as soon as they are ready, usually within minutes, and are also emailed to you. This list refreshes by itself.
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